Adobe holiday forecast: a record $275.1bn US online season as AI shoppers convert better.
Adobe forecasts a record $275.1bn in US online holiday spending, up 6.7%, with traffic from AI tools set to grow 130% and AI-referred shoppers already converting 48% better.
By Adobe Digital Insights · Sep 28, 2026
Adobe Digital Insights expects US shoppers to spend a record $275.1bn online between 1 November and 31 December 2026, up 6.7% on last year. Its 2026 holiday forecast, based on Adobe Analytics data from more than a trillion visits to US retail sites, also finds AI assistants becoming a valuable source of shoppers: in August, visitors referred by AI converted 48% better than other traffic.
The forecast covers the US only, but it gives Gulf retailers planning White Friday and year-end sales an early look at trends such as the timing of discounts, AI referrals and buy now, pay later.
$275.1bn
forecast US online spending from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%
130%
forecast growth in traffic from AI tools to US retail sites this season
48%
higher conversion for AI-referred visitors than for other traffic in August 2026
$21.3bn
forecast buy now, pay later spending, a record, up 6.6%
Key findings
- A record season, peaking in Cyber Week. Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is forecast at $47.5bn, up 7.4% and 17.3% of the season. Cyber Monday should be the first day to pass $15bn ($15.1bn, up 6.2%), while Black Friday grows fastest, up 9.2% to $12.9bn. October alone should bring $95.8bn, up 8%.
- Discounts build towards Cyber Week. Adobe expects the deepest discounts to reach 14% off list prices in early November, 21% just before Thanksgiving and 30% during Cyber Week, easing to 10% to 15% in December.
- AI shoppers are worth more. Traffic from AI tools to retail sites grew 127% year on year in August and is forecast to grow 130% year on year over the season and 141% on Thanksgiving. In August, AI-referred visitors converted 48% better, engaged 16% more, added to cart 32% more often and brought 43% more revenue per visit than other traffic, a reversal from a year earlier, when other traffic converted better.
- Shoppers feel surer with AI. In Adobe's survey of 5,000 US consumers, 77% of those using AI to shop online say it made them more confident in a purchase, and 69% say they are less likely to return something bought with an AI assistant's help.
- Social and affiliates take share. Social networks (+17%) and affiliates and partners (+12%) are forecast to lead growth in revenue share this season, while paid search grows 4% and natural search falls 13%. Cashback and rewards sites draw 36% of affiliate visits, and influencer and creator links 22%.
- Mobile and BNPL keep growing. Mobile devices should account for 57.4% of online sales, up from 56.4%, peaking at 63% on Thanksgiving. Buy now, pay later spending is forecast at a record $21.3bn, about 8% of the season's spending, with $1.09bn on Cyber Monday.
How the research was done
The forecast draws on Adobe Analytics data covering more than 1 trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million products and 18 categories, plus a survey of 5,000 US consumers, which the report dates to 9 to 16 September 2026 and Adobe's release to July. Adobe says 85 of the top 100 US online retailers use its products, citing 2021 Digital Commerce 360 data. The spending figures are forecasts of US online spending only, while the AI comparisons are measured August data. The release and report also differ on AI traffic on Thanksgiving: the release gives 159% growth and the report 141%, which we use.
What it means for marketers
For Gulf retailers heading into White Friday, the US numbers carry three lessons. About a sixth of the season's spending (17.3%) falls in the five days of Cyber Week, when discounts are deepest, so stock, pricing and site speed in that week matter more than ever. Shoppers arriving from AI assistants are now worth more than average, which makes product data, prices and stock that AI tools can read a revenue question rather than a technical detail. And social and affiliate channels, creators included, are taking share from natural search.
The figures are American and many are forecasts, so treat them as a guide to direction rather than a Gulf benchmark.
About this report
Published by Adobe Digital Insights, September 2026. Free. Get the full report from Adobe
Sources
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